Mu gihe gishize, Yellen yasuye Ubushinwa, bivugwa ko agomba gukora “imirimo” myinshi, ibitangazamakuru byo mu mahanga kugira ngo bimufashe kuvuga kimwe muri byo: “kumvisha abayobozi b'Abashinwa ko Amerika mu izina ry’umutekano w’igihugu kugira ngo ibuze Ubushinwa kubona ikoranabuhanga ryoroshye nka semiconductor ndetse n’ingamba nyinshi zitagamije kwangiza ubukungu bw’Ubushinwa.”
Haraheze imyaka 2023, Amerika yatangije guhagarika inganda za Chip y'Ubushinwa ntabwo ari munsi y'imigezi icumi, Urutonde rw'ibigo by'imigabane ku ruganda n'abantu barenga 2000, birakora kandi ko ari "mu by'ukuri, ndataka."
Birashoboka ko Abanyamerika ubwabo batashoboraga kwihanganira kubibona, bidatinze byibasiwe n'ikindi kiganiro mu kinyamakuru New York Times.
Nyuma y'iminsi ine Yellen avuye mu Bushinwa, Alex Palmer, umunyamakuru uzwi cyane mu Bushinwa mu bitangazamakuru byo mu mahanga, yasohoye inkuru kuri NYT isobanura ihagarikwa rya chip muri Amerika, ryanditswe mu mutwe: Iri ni itegeko ry'intambara.
Alex Palmer wahawe impamyabumenyi ya Harvard akaba n'umuhanga wa mbere wa Yanjing muri kaminuza ya Peking, amaze igihe kinini avuga ku Bushinwa, harimo Xu Xiang, fentanyl na TikTok, kandi ni umuntu uziranye kera wababaje amarangamutima y'Abashinwa. Ariko yabonye Abanyamerika kumubwiza ukuri kuri chip.
Muri iyo ngingo, umwe mu babajijwe yavuze yeruye ati: "Ntabwo tuzemera ko Ubushinwa bugira icyo butera imbere mu ikoranabuhanga, ahubwo tuzahindura byimazeyo urwego rw’ikoranabuhanga rugezweho" kandi ko guhagarika chip "ahanini ari ukurandura burundu urusobe rw'ibinyabuzima byose by’ikoranabuhanga mu Bushinwa."
Abanyamerika bafashe ijambo "kurandura," risobanura "gutsemba" no "kurandurwa," kandi rikunze kuvugwa imbere ya virusi y'ibicurane cyangwa amakarito y’ibiyobyabwenge yo muri Mexico. Noneho, intego yijambo ni inganda zikorana buhanga mu Bushinwa. Abanditsi bavuga ko izo ngamba ziramutse zigenze neza, zishobora kugira ingaruka ku iterambere ry’Ubushinwa ku gisekuru.
Umuntu wese ushaka kumva urugero rwintambara azakenera guhekenya ijambo kurandura inshuro nyinshi.
01
Intambara ikabije
Amategeko yo guhatana n amategeko yintambara mubyukuri ibintu bibiri bitandukanye rwose.
Amarushanwa y'ubucuruzi ni amarushanwa mu rwego rw'amategeko, ariko intambara ntabwo ari imwe, uwo muhanganye ntabwo yubaha amategeko n'amabwiriza, azakora ibishoboka byose kugira ngo agere ku ntego zabo bwite. Cyane cyane mubijyanye na chip, Reta zunzubumwe zamerika zirashobora no guhora zihindura amategeko - uhuza numurongo umwe, wahise usimbuza urwego rushya kugirango rukemure nawe.
Kurugero, muri 2018, Minisiteri yubucuruzi y’Amerika yemereye Fujian Jinhua hakoreshejwe “urutonde rw’ibigo”, ibyo bikaba byaratumye ihagarikwa ry’umusaruro (ubu ryongeye imirimo); Muri 2019, Huawei nayo yashyizwe ku rutonde rw'ibigo, ibuza amasosiyete y'Abanyamerika kuyatanga ibicuruzwa na serivisi, nka software ya EDA na GMS ya Google.
Nyuma yo kubona ko ubwo buryo budashobora "gukuraho" burundu Huawei, Amerika yahinduye amategeko: guhera muri Gicurasi 2020, yatangiye gusaba amasosiyete yose akoresha ikoranabuhanga ry’Abanyamerika gutanga Huawei, nk’uruganda rwa TSMC, ibyo bikaba byaratumye ihagarikwa rya Hisiculus ndetse no kugabanuka gukabije kwa terefone zigendanwa za Huawei, buri mwaka bikaba byangiza igihombo cy’amafaranga arenga miliyari 100 y’inganda z’inganda mu Bushinwa.
Nyuma yibyo, ubuyobozi bwa Biden bwongereye intego y’umuriro buva kuri “entreprise” bugera ku “nganda”, kandi umubare munini w’ibigo by’abashinwa, za kaminuza n’ibigo by’ubushakashatsi mu bya siyansi byashyizwe ku rutonde rw’ibihano. Ku ya 7 Ukwakira 2022, Biro y’inganda n’umutekano muri Minisiteri y’ubucuruzi muri Amerika (BIS) yasohoye amabwiriza mashya yo kugenzura ibyoherezwa mu mahanga hafi ya yose yashyizeho “igisenge” ku mashanyarazi y’Ubushinwa:
Chipic logique iri munsi ya 16nm cyangwa 14nm, Ububiko bwa NAND bufite ibice 128 cyangwa birenga, imiyoboro ya DRAM ihuriweho na 18nm cyangwa munsi yayo, nibindi birabujijwe koherezwa hanze, kandi chip yo kubara ifite imbaraga zo kubara zirenga 4800TOPS hamwe numuyoboro mugari urenga 600GB / s nabyo birabujijwe kugemurwa, haba gushinga cyangwa kugurisha ibicuruzwa.
Mu magambo y’ikigo cy’ibitekerezo cya Washington: Trump yibasiye ubucuruzi, naho Biden akubita inganda.
Iyo usomye igitabo cyimibiri itatu yikibazo, biroroshye kubasomyi basanzwe kumva Yang mo ya Zhizi gufunga ikoranabuhanga ryisi; Ariko mubyukuri, iyo abantu benshi badafite inganda bareba kubuza chip, akenshi baba bafite imyumvire: mugihe ukurikiza amategeko ya Amerika, ntuzaba wibasiwe; Iyo ugenewe, bivuze ko wakoze nabi.
Iyi myumvire ni ibisanzwe, kubera ko abantu benshi baguma mumitekerereze ya "marushanwa". Ariko muri "ntambara," iyi myumvire irashobora kuba kwibeshya. Mu myaka yashize, abayobozi benshi ba semiconductor bagaragaje ko mugihe ubushakashatsi niterambere ryigenga ryigenga bitangiye kwishora mubikorwa byateye imbere (ndetse nubushakashatsi bwakozwe mbere), bizahura nurukuta rwa gaze rutagaragara.
Ubushakashatsi niterambere ryibikoresho byo murwego rwohejuru bishingiye kumurongo wogutanga ikoranabuhanga ryisi yose, nko gukora 5nm SoC chip, ugomba kugura cores muri Arm, kugura software muri Candence cyangwa Synopsys, kugura patenti muri Qualcomm, no guhuza ubushobozi bwumusaruro hamwe na TSMC… Igihe cyose ibyo bikorwa nibikorwa, bazinjira mubyerekezo byubugenzuzi bwa BIS muri Amerika.
Urubanza rumwe ni isosiyete ikora chip ifitwe n’uruganda rwa terefone igendanwa, yafunguye ishami ry’ubushakashatsi n’iterambere muri Tayiwani mu rwego rwo gukurura impano zaho zo gukora chip yo mu rwego rw’abaguzi, ariko bidatinze ihura n '“iperereza” ry’inzego zibishinzwe za Tayiwani. Mu kwiheba, ishami ryavuye muri nyina nk'umuntu utanga isoko ryigenga hanze y'umubiri, ariko byagombaga kwitonda.
Amaherezo, ishami rya Tayiwani ryabaye ngombwa ko rihagarikwa nyuma y’igitero cyagabwe n’abashinjacyaha bo muri Tayiwani bagabye igitero bakambura seriveri yacyo (nta kurenga ku byabonetse). Nyuma y'amezi make, isosiyete yababyeyi nayo yafashe icyemezo cyo gusesa - ubuyobozi bwo hejuru bwasanze mugihe gihagarikwa ry’imihindagurikire, igihe cyose ari umushinga wa chip wo mu rwego rwo hejuru, hashobora kubaho “kanda imwe.”
Mubyukuri, iyo ubucuruzi butateganijwe buhuye nabafite imigabane minini bakunda imyanda ya tekinoroji ya Maoxiang, ibizavamo birarimbuka.
Ubu bushobozi "kanda rimwe zeru" ahanini ni Amerika yahinduye "igabana ry’inganda ku isi rishingiye ku bucuruzi bwisanzuye" mbere ryakoreshwaga mu ntwaro yo gutera umwanzi. Intiti z'Abanyamerika zazanye ijambo intwaro zuzuzanya hagati yisukari iyi myitwarire.
Nyuma yo kubona neza ibyo bintu, byinshi mubintu byavuzwe mbere ntabwo ari ngombwa kubiganiraho. Kurugero, ntampamvu yo kumurika Huawei kubera kurenga kubuza Irani, kuko byavuzwe neza ko "Irani ari urwitwazo gusa"; Biratangaje gushinja Ubushinwa politiki y’inganda, dore ko Amerika ikoresha miliyari 53 z'amadolari yo gutera inkunga inganda zikora chip no guteza imbere reshoring.
Clausewitz yigeze kuvuga ati: "Intambara ni ugukomeza politiki." Kimwe n'intambara za chip.
02
Inzitizi iruma
Abantu bamwe bazabaza: Amerika rero "igihugu cyose cyo kurwana", nta kuntu twakemura?
Niba ushaka amayeri yubumaji yo kumena umwanzi, ntabwo aribyo. Ubumenyi bwa mudasobwa ubwabwo bwavukiye muri Amerika, cyane cyane inganda zuzuzanya, urundi ruhande kugira ngo rukoreshe inzira z’intambara kugira ngo rukine uburenganzira bwo kuvuga urwego rw’inganda, Ubushinwa bushobora gufata igihe kirekire kugira ngo butsinde buva mu majyaruguru no mu majyepfo buhoro buhoro, bikaba inzira ndende.
Ariko, ntabwo arukuri kuvuga ko iki "gikorwa cyintambara" nta ngaruka mbi kandi gishobora gukoreshwa igihe kirekire. Ingaruka nini zatewe no gukumira inzego z’Amerika muri rusange ni iyi: iha Ubushinwa amahirwe yo gushingira ku buryo bw’isoko, aho kuba imbaraga nyinshi zo gutegura, kugira ngo ikibazo gikemuke.
Iyi nteruro irashobora kugorana kubyumva mbere. Turashobora kubanza gusobanukirwa nimbaraga zogutegura neza, kurugero, muruganda rwa semiconductor, hari umushinga wihariye wo gushyigikira ubushakashatsi bukomeye bwa tekiniki, bwiswe "nini nini cyane ihuriweho n’inganda zikora imashanyarazi kandi byuzuye", inganda zisanzwe zitwa 02 zidasanzwe, amafaranga yimari.
02 idasanzwe ibigo byinshi byafashe, mugihe umwanditsi yari mu ishoramari rya semiconductor, mugihe isosiyete yubushakashatsi yabonye "02 idasanzwe" nyinshi yavuye muri prototype, nyuma yo kubona ibyiyumvo bivanze, wabivuga nte? Ibyinshi mu bikoresho byegeranijwe mu bubiko ni ikiganza kijimye, birashoboka gusa igihe abayobozi bashinzwe ubugenzuzi bazimurirwa kuri polish.
Birumvikana ko umushinga udasanzwe 02 watanze amafaranga yingirakamaro kubigo mugihe cyitumba icyo gihe, ariko kurundi ruhande, imikorere yimikoreshereze yaya mafranga ntabwo iri hejuru. Nishingikirije ku nkunga y'amafaranga yonyine (niyo inkunga yaba ari imishinga), mfite ubwoba ko bigoye gukora ikoranabuhanga n'ibicuruzwa bishobora gushyirwa ku isoko. Umuntu wese wigeze akora ubushakashatsi arabizi.
Mbere y'intambara ya chip, Ubushinwa bwari bufite ibikoresho byinshi bigoye, ibikoresho ndetse n’amasosiyete mato ya chip yarwanaga guhangana na bagenzi babo bo mu mahanga, kandi amasosiyete nka SMIC, JCET ndetse na Huawei ubusanzwe ntiyabitayeho cyane, kandi biroroshye kumva impamvu: batazakoresha ibicuruzwa byo mu gihugu igihe bashoboraga kugura ibicuruzwa byo mu mahanga bikuze kandi bihendutse.
Ariko kuba Amerika yarahagaritse inganda zikora chip mu Bushinwa byazanye amahirwe adasanzwe kuri aya masosiyete.
Ku bijyanye no kuzitirwa, abakora uruganda rwo mu gihugu mbere rwirengagijwe na fab cyangwa ibihingwa bipimisha bifunze bahise bajyanwa mu bubiko, kandi ibikoresho byinshi n’ibikoresho byoherejwe ku murongo w’ibicuruzwa kugira ngo bigenzurwe. Kandi amapfa maremare nimvura yinganda nto zo murugo byabonye gitunguranye ibyiringiro, ntamuntu watinyutse gutakaza ayo mahirwe yagaciro, nuko bakorana ubudacogora kugirango batezimbere ibicuruzwa.
Nubwo iyi ari inzitizi yimbere yo kwamamariza isoko, ku gahato ku isoko, ariko imikorere yayo nayo irakora neza kuruta imbaraga zateguwe: ishyaka rimwe ryumutima wicyuma kugirango risimburwe murugo, ishyaka rimwe rifata cyane ibyatsi, kandi mubuyobozi bwa siyanse n'ikoranabuhanga ingaruka zikomeye zahumetswe na semiconductor hejuru hafi ya buri gice gihagaritse hariho ibigo byinshi mubunini.
Twabaze inyungu y’amasosiyete y’Ubushinwa yashyizwe ku rutonde rwa semiconductor mu myaka icumi ishize (hatoranywa gusa ibigo bifite imyaka icumi y’imikorere idahwema), kandi tuzabona iterambere ryagaragaye: mu myaka 10 ishize, inyungu zose z’ibi bigo by’imbere mu gihugu zari hejuru ya miliyari 3 gusa, kandi mu 2022, inyungu zabo zose zirenga miliyari 33.4, zikubye hafi inshuro 10 ugereranije n’imyaka 10 ishize.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ukwakira-30-2023
